Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5ae4…011e sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,119 (-27%) realized −$4,119 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$562per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$118
14 days+$118
30 days−$5,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$4,007
other 1% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -37.5% -43.5% 50% 50% -0.9%
≤30d 12 -57.6% -61.6% 25% 25% -47.5%
≤90d 27 +6.7% -3.5% 41% 41% -34.4%
all 27 +6.7% -3.5% 41% 41% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 41% -34.4%
10% -12.7% 41% -40.7%
15% -21.1% 26% -46.4%
20% -28.9% 26% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$700) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +82% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$437 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage36d
Avg bet$562
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Jun 28 $1,079 +$269 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $155 −$151 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,166 −$1,154 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 12 $581 −$578 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $333 +$248 +74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $165 −$163 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,426 +$388 +27%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $4,188 −$725 -17%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $718 −$700 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 05 $1,301 −$1,287 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $1,217 −$1,212 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) May 29 $143 −$141 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $238 −$234 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 27 $103 −$100 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 27 $103 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $515 +$132 +26%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $298 +$217 +73%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 25 $96 −$95 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $301 +$93 +31%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $152 +$116 +76%
Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5 May 24 $152 +$136 +89%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $51 +$399 +776%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $148 +$450 +303%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $149 −$146 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $196 +$386 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $1,348 1h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 79¢ $1,079 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $155 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 65¢ $1,166 14d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $581 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $581 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $333 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $165 19d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $1,814 19d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $1,426 20d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 16¢ $783 21d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 27¢ $1,373 21d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $1,378 21d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $1,475 22d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 13¢ $718 23d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Serbia 64¢ $1,301 23d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $1,303 23d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $1,340 23d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $1,217 28d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $143 29d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 40¢ $136 32d
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 18¢ $102 32d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $103 32d
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 14¢ $103 32d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 39¢ $102 33d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $102 33d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $647 33d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea BUY Hanwha Life Esports 79¢ $515 33d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 100¢ $515 33d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $298 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records