Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ae6…07c4 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$12
sports 25% −$2
politics 23% +$3
world 17% +$1
economics 4% −$3
tech 3% +$13
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 24 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 8% -9.2%
all 32 -3.3% -12.6% 44% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 12% -9.6%
10% -20.9% 6% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage529d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $53 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $47 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $71 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $60 +$13 +21%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 23 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $64 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $39 −$4 -11%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $75 −$3 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $88 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $247 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $288 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 20 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Feb 03 $8 −$8 -100%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 23 $23 $0 -1%
Will Jeremiah Smith NOT score a touchdown AND Quinn Ewers throw an int Jan 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? Jan 08 $9 +$3 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $48 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $2 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $8 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $7 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $3 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $14 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $48 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $48 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $47 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.37 · official $47.90 (match) · 115 history records