Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ae7…cc21 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 498d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%40W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$2
other 18% $0
politics 17% $0
tech 15% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 4% $0
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 -1.6% -11.0% 77% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

498d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses40 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage498d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in December? Jan 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 04 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $24 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Apr 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Baylor win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $16 +$1 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 61d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 92d
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $39 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $2 149d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 150d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 151d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $4 181d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 181d
Will Solana reach $200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $30 182d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $42 212d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 99¢ $26 243d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 272d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $24 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $32 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 333d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $24 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 363d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 365d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.64 · official $43.64 (match) · 114 history records