Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ae7…c169 weather 1204 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%1134W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 -0.2% -9.7% 100% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 910 -0.1% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1199 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 4% -10.2%
all 1199 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 4% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 1% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1134 / 65
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1199 / 1204
History coverage60d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.73 · official $34.95 (match) · 2430 history records