Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ae8…e1b3 sports 151 markets active 4d ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$478 (-4%) realized −$478 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%90W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$424
14 days−$148
30 days−$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$511
other 6% −$128
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -12.3% -20.7% 57% 55% -18.5%
≤30d 113 -12.7% -21.1% 59% 55% -15.4%
≤90d 151 -13.2% -21.4% 60% 53% -15.0%
all 151 -13.2% -21.4% 60% 53% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 53% -15.0%
10% -29.0% 45% -23.2%
15% -35.8% 30% -30.6%
20% -42.1% 22% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$57 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$478
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses90 / 61
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage56d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $129 −$127 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$62 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $80 +$20 +25%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $91 −$79 -87%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $172 +$129 +75%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$49 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $115 −$114 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$25 +62%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$49 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $110 +$31 +29%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$39 -78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $126 −$124 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $150 +$122 +81%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$16 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $210 −$207 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $65 −$65 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $163 +$102 +63%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$13 +25%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $90 +$47 +53%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$7 +23%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $87 −$85 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $70 +$58 +84%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $73 +$12 +16%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $110 +$95 +87%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$55 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $45 +$20 +45%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $120 +$58 +49%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $143 −$141 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $94 +$39 +42%
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 11 $71 +$92 +129%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $68 −$68 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $71 +$36 +51%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $71 +$36 +51%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $147 −$146 -99%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$4 +21%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $91 +$47 +52%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $68 −$37 -55%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $192 −$189 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $44 −$43 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $157 +$49 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $20 +$11 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $50 +$27 +54%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $123 +$5 +4%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $80 −$79 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $198 +$228 +115%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $60 −$54 -90%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $102 +$143 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 51¢ $10 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 45¢ $19 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 44¢ $20 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 42¢ $20 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $29 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 59¢ $29 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 36¢ $20 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 51¢ $43 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $101 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner SELL G2 NORD 3¢ $12 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner BUY G2 NORD 12¢ $9 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner BUY G2 NORD 18¢ $31 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner BUY G2 NORD 31¢ $51 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 83¢ $30 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 78¢ $50 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 100¢ $301 4d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $50 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 43¢ $15 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 58¢ $25 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 62¢ $25 4d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 100¢ $65 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 73¢ $20 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 66¢ $29 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 90¢ $20 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 76¢ $10 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 79¢ $20 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 37¢ $20 4d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 57¢ $29 4d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 70¢ $20 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 57¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 616 history records