Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ae9…c459 crypto 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-5%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%96W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$36
14 days−$41
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$9
crypto 34% −$133
other 9% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.3% -24.3% 48% 37% -26.3%
≤30d 50 -7.1% -15.9% 58% 42% -13.3%
≤90d 152 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 35% -15.1%
all 189 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 36% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 36% -17.3%
10% -16.6% 26% -25.2%
15% -24.6% 18% -32.4%
20% -32.0% 13% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses96 / 93
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage230d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$13 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +17%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 07 $1 −$1 -67%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $1 +$1 +124%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $7 −$4 -61%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $45 +$1 +2%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $7 +$1 +11%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $20 +$3 +16%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $30 +$2 +5%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $24 −$7 -29%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $6 +$2 +29%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $15 +$9 +58%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $8 +$2 +29%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 21 $5 $0 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $10 −$1 -6%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $5 +$6 +119%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $30 −$3 -11%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $9 +$3 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $9 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 704 history records