Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5aeb…6494 crypto 559 markets active 4d ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$770 (-7%) realized −$770 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%332W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day51.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$55
14 days−$532
30 days−$912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$463
world 11% +$91
sports 7% −$173
other 7% −$46
tech 7% −$73
politics 6% −$40
weather 6% −$227
culture 2% +$13
finance 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 55% -3.9%
≤30d 559 -1.9% -11.3% 59% 48% -17.1%
≤90d 559 -1.9% -11.3% 59% 48% -17.1%
all 559 -1.9% -11.3% 59% 48% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 48% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 38% -25.1%
15% -27.5% 32% -32.3%
20% -34.6% 28% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$770
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses332 / 227
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)559 / 559
History coverage23d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day51.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 559 Trades
no open positions (105 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$17 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$51 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1530 history records