Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5aef…ccfb other 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$763 (+1%) realized +$763 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%27W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$1,017per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$754
politics 37% −$65
sports 11% +$70
economics 2% −$3
world 2% −$5
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -9.7% -18.3% 9% 3% -9.5%
all 131 +2.7% -7.1% 21% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 14% -9.0%
10% -16.0% 14% -17.7%
15% -24.1% 12% -25.7%
20% -31.5% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,494) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$9 · ×6.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$1,126
Realized+$763
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses27 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,017
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $811 $811 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $315 $315 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $484 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,348 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $3,512 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,304 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,358 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,822 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,829 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,354 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 04 $372 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 04 $644 +$2 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,310 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $627 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 28 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,939 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $3,174 −$4 -0%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 21 $893 +$681 +76%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,995 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,501 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $989 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $630 +$1 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,593 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,574 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,888 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,841 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,871 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $839 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $315 17m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $483 3h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $484 4h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $324 27h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $325 30h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $374 46h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $374 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $811 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,333 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,335 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,482 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,484 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,531 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,533 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,374 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,376 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,457 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,459 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,611 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,614 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,096 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,097 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,365 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,367 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,354 15d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,356 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,395 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,396 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,492 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,494 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,125.97 · official $1,125.97 (match) · 451 history records