Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5af4…183c sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23,164 (-10%) realized −$23,366 · open +$202
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%45W / 57L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,070per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2,524est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$17,802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$11,368
30 days−$11,568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$23,007
other 20% −$2,358
world 1% +$1,190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -45.1% -50.3% 30% 30% -72.1%
≤90d 102 -23.2% -30.5% 44% 44% -20.4%
all 102 -23.2% -30.5% 44% 44% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 44% -20.4%
10% -37.1% 41% -28.0%
15% -43.2% 33% -35.0%
20% -48.8% 27% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$2,200) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,656 vs −$1,735 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$17,802
Realized−$23,366
Unrealized+$202
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses45 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$2,524
Open positions5
Markets (closed)102 / 107
History coverage86d
Avg bet$2,070
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $11,000 $10,896 −$104 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $5,000 $4,950 −$50 (-1%)
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,028 +$28 (+3%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 38¢ 66¢ $300 $513 +$213 (+71%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 72¢ $300 $415 +$115 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8,937 −$8,800 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,013 +$805 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,043 −$3,000 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $812 +$785 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $712 −$700 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? May 15 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 11 $145 −$144 -99%
Will Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? May 11 $836 +$285 +34%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $609 +$545 +90%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2,021 +$1,056 +52%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3,020 +$826 +27%
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw? May 10 $1,006 +$229 +23%
Will FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? May 10 $1,108 +$358 +32%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $1,447 +$267 +18%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5 May 09 $1,401 −$1,380 -98%
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 09 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $1,171 −$1,146 -98%
Will Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? May 08 $6,052 −$6,000 -99%
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 08 $1,117 −$1,100 -98%
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 May 08 $203 −$200 -99%
Will SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga end in a draw? May 08 $504 +$172 +34%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $3,018 +$724 +24%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 May 07 $2,235 −$2,200 -98%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 07 $1,319 −$1,300 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $12,043 +$3,490 +29%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 06 $13,869 +$14,009 +101%
Will US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? May 05 $1,211 +$503 +42%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 04 $1,983 −$1,950 -98%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 04 $1,320 −$1,300 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1,153 +$220 +19%
Will Paris FC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? May 04 $1,201 +$431 +36%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1,218 +$1,190 +98%
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5 May 03 $972 −$955 -98%
Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5 May 03 $1,018 −$113 -11%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. Torino FC end in a draw? May 03 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1,218 +$1,135 +93%
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? May 03 $2,114 +$683 +32%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,481 −$1,452 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 11m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 11m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 11m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 12m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 15m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 22m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 24m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $102 28m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 30m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 31m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 36m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $1,015 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $1,015 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $1,015 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $1,015 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $1,015 12h
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 65¢ $101 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,802.46 · official $17,771.27 (match) · 462 history records