Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5A 0x5af8…9d91 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$66 (-1%) realized −$66 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$653per market

Trades / day97.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-8.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+1.5%	-8.1%	50%	44%	-10.0%
≤30d	18	+1.5%	-8.1%	50%	44%	-10.0%
≤90d	18	+1.5%	-8.1%	50%	44%	-10.0%
all	18	+1.5%	-8.1%	50%	44%	-10.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover97.0 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.1%	44%	-10.0%
10%	-16.9%	44%	-18.6%
15% ← realistic here	-25.0%	44%	-26.5%
20%	-32.3%	33%	-33.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$874) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +25% → late -22% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$736 vs −$744 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.99 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$66

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$653

Trades / day97.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 27	$1,612	+$1,584	+98%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 27	$307	−$307	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 27	$617	+$380	+62%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 27	$410	+$223	+54%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 27	$1,526	−$1,489	-98%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 27	$376	+$143	+38%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 27	$359	−$350	-98%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 27	$205	−$100	-49%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 27	$103	−$100	-97%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 27	$208	−$200	-96%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 27	$619	+$1,154	+187%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 27	$2,304	−$2,246	-98%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 27	$874	+$3,008	+344%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 27	$1,238	−$1,200	-97%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 27	$106	+$41	+39%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 27	$183	+$93	+51%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 27	$715	−$700	-98%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 27	$1	$0	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$103	35m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$102	36m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$102	36m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$102	40m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$102	40m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$103	41m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$103	41m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$205	51m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$205	51m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$206	52m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$36	57m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$204	57m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$43	57m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$206	57m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$203	57m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$204	58m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$103	58m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$103	59m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$52	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$38	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$25	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$103	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$103	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$103	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$101	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$101	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$70	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$103	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$51	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$102	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records