Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5af8…db25 sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$62 (-10%) realized −$82 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$44
other 22% +$24
crypto 18% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -18.1% -25.9% 46% 42% -7.3%
≤30d 24 -18.1% -25.9% 46% 42% -7.3%
≤90d 24 -18.1% -25.9% 46% 42% -7.3%
all 24 -18.1% -25.9% 46% 42% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 42% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 42% -16.2%
15% -39.5% 38% -24.3%
20% -45.4% 38% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)24 / 36
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 80¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+31%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 46¢ 80¢ $25 $44 +$19 (+75%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 57¢ 34¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 57¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 13¢ 26¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+100%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 25¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-66%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Yes 10¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? AND Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $50 +$76 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $23 −$22 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$24 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$12 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$22 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $23 +$17 +70%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $36 −$36 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $25 +$20 +77%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 24 $5 +$3 +76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$9 +86%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 $0 +8%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $6 +$2 +31%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $11 +$11 +97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $19 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $44 3m
France leading at halftime? AND Senegal leading at halftime? SELL 93¢ $126 40m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $2 59m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 59m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $51 1h
France leading at halftime? AND Senegal leading at halftime? BUY 36¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? AND Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY $4 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $40 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY 29¢ $60 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: Both Team BUY 27¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.91 · official $223.66 · 93 history records