Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5A 0x5afa…e478 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$6 (+22%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$3
tech 25% $0
politics 13% $0
other 11% +$2
sports 8% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +50.0% +35.7% 100% 67% +28.6%
≤30d 6 +50.0% +35.7% 100% 67% +28.6%
≤90d 8 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 50% +12.6%
all 8 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 50% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.6% 50% +12.6%
10% +12.6% 50% +1.8%
15% +1.8% 50% -8.0%
20% -8.2% 38% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage88d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 74¢ 73¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +133%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.53 · official $3.53 (match) · 18 history records