Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5afa…df73
crypto · 665 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,955 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,903 · open −$53
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$870
Realized−$1,903
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses482 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions6
Markets (closed)658 / 665
History coverage147d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 6 History 658 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,007
7 days−$1,767
14 days−$1,769
30 days−$2,002
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $293 $252 −$40 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $201 $201 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $199 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 32¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $699 +$2 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $81 +$29 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 14 $864 −$374 -43%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $137 −$38 -28%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $804 +$79 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $141 +$34 +24%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 +$32 +131%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $367 −$126 -34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $369 −$11 -3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $381 −$10 -3%
Canadiens vs. Devils Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$57 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Raptors Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jun 13 $73 −$63 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% −$1,270
crypto 40% −$613
other 9% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY 67¢ $84 19m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $204 22m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $206 23m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 31m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 32m
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) SELL Haiti 85¢ $701 1h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Haiti 84¢ $699 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 SELL Under 88¢ $110 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 SELL Over 48¢ $379 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 SELL Over 56¢ $111 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 SELL Over 62¢ $12 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 SELL Over 62¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 SELL Over 62¢ $86 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 64¢ $81 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Over 85¢ $137 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 BUY Over 86¢ $864 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Morocco 96¢ $882 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 88¢ $175 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $56 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $24 6h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 87¢ $804 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $141 6h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 48¢ $241 6h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 75¢ $358 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 75¢ $370 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $139 21h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $96 21h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $141 21h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $273 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -72.7% -75.3% 16% 9% -28.8%
≤30d 130 -66.2% -69.4% 19% 11% -26.4%
≤90d 317 -19.2% -26.9% 59% 38% -18.4%
all 658 -5.3% -14.3% 73% 39% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 39% -15.2%
10% -22.5% 17% -23.3%
15% -30.0% 7% -30.7%
20% -36.9% 4% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $870.35 · official $953.43 · 1799 history records