Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5afc…2995
other · 25 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$155
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)4 / 25
History coverage121d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 21 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 42¢ 82¢ $11 $20 +$10 (+95%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 47¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$4 (+111%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 2¢ 2¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 95¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+17%)
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Giron Hijikata 55¢ 42¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 78¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? No 56¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? No 80¢ 61¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? No 81¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 93¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 93¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 52¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 74¢ 68¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? No 88¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? No 73¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Top Esports 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 74% $0
sports 20% +$6
weather 4% −$2
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4m
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 80¢ $3 12m
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Giron BUY Hijikata 55¢ $1 14m
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Giron BUY Hijikata 55¢ $3 14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 19m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 19m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 2¢ $3 20m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 2¢ $1 20m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 0¢ $1 20m
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $2 20m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 2¢ $2 20m
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $2 20m
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 93¢ $2 20m
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 74¢ $2 20m
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 92¢ $2 20m
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 93¢ $2 20m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 20m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 20m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 20m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $3 20m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 21m
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 86¢ $2 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 48¢ $2 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.3% -47.8% 25% 25% -30.5%
≤30d 4 -42.3% -47.8% 25% 25% -30.5%
≤90d 4 -42.3% -47.8% 25% 25% -30.5%
all 4 -42.3% -47.8% 25% 25% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 25% -30.5%
10% -52.8% 25% -37.2%
15% -57.4% 25% -43.2%
20% -61.6% 25% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.44 · official $146.18 · 48 history records