Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5A 0x5afc…dc48 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% $0
other 28% −$6
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -20.8% -28.4% 0% 0% -28.4%
≤30d 1 -20.8% -28.4% 0% 0% -28.4%
≤90d 1 -20.8% -28.4% 0% 0% -28.4%
all 4 -15.1% -23.2% 0% 0% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 0% -16.2%
10% -30.5% 0% -24.3%
15% -37.2% 0% -31.6%
20% -43.4% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage243d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -21%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $15 −$6 -39%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Oct 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 165d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 95¢ $15 174d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 212d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $19 212d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $19 223d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $49 243d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $49 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.78 · official $213.78 (match) · 10 history records