Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b03…b8bc world 75 markets active 3h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$13
other 32% +$8
politics 12% $0
sports 5% +$6
economics 4% $0
finance 2% −$4
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.6% -10.0% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 -1.4% -10.8% 32% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 55 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 2% -9.5%
all 72 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 48
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage347d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 84¢ $58 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 90¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $87 +$3 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $104 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $91 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 −$2 -8%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $186 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $121 −$3 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $90 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $181 +$4 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $320 −$3 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $95 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $78 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $234 +$3 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $163 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $58 −$3 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $96 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $183 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $8 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $148 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $120 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $16 −$8 -48%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $12 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $29 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $99 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $6 $0 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $59 −$4 -7%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $661 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $725 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $658 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $41 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $99 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $90 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $86 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $78 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $99 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $100 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $57 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $91 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $26 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $28 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $28 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $0 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $101 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $91 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $93 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $93 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.00 · official $56.28 (match) · 280 history records