Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b04…806d crypto 1482 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%699W / 645L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$153
14 days+$225
30 days+$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$204
other 3% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -22.9% -30.2% 42% 42% -0.9%
≤30d 1023 +4.9% -5.1% 52% 52% -2.5%
≤90d 1344 +2.4% -7.3% 52% 50% -8.2%
all 1344 +2.4% -7.3% 52% 50% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 50% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 47% -17.0%
15% -24.3% 44% -25.0%
20% -31.7% 41% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses699 / 645
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1344 / 1482
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1344 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$16 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $46 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $56 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $12 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $46 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records