Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b07…de95 sports 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$797 (-0%) realized −$416 · open −$381
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate77%134W / 41L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,149per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$9,852now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$759
7 days+$1,259
14 days+$1,259
30 days+$1,259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$3,695
other 21% +$3,040
world 18% +$926
politics 5% −$1,370
culture 2% +$123
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% +$170
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +6.4% -3.7% 67% 58% +0.3%
≤30d 12 +6.4% -3.7% 67% 58% +0.3%
≤90d 12 +6.4% -3.7% 67% 58% +0.3%
all 175 -8.1% -16.8% 77% 31% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 31% -9.7%
10% -24.8% 11% -18.4%
15% -32.1% 7% -26.3%
20% -38.7% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,514) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$400 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$9,852
Realized−$416
Unrealized−$381
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses134 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)175 / 185
History coverage206d
Avg bet$1,149
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $4,400 $4,376 −$24 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $2,000 $2,012 +$12 (+1%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $1,026 $1,010 −$16 (-2%)
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Yannick Hanfmann 81¢ 78¢ $810 $775 −$35 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $500 $488 −$12 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $327 $359 +$32 (+10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 47¢ 10¢ $470 $95 −$375 (-80%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Team Falcons 70¢ $0 $36 +$36 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,523 +$1,896 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,969 +$16 +0%
Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Zsombor Pi Jun 20 $831 −$230 -28%
Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-L Jun 20 $102 −$84 -82%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Lilmix (BO3) Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,214 −$1,009 -83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,007 +$241 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$230 +46%
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles Jan 12 $3,929 +$64 +2%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $3,963 −$1,981 -50%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17, 2026? Jan 09 $148 +$3 +2%
Panthers vs. Canadiens Jan 09 $7,589 +$583 +8%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026? Jan 09 $7,276 +$312 +4%
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? Jan 07 $7,382 +$1,038 +14%
Brisbane International: Jaqueline Cristian vs Marie Bouzkova Jan 04 $1,069 +$169 +16%
Sabres vs. Blue Jackets Jan 04 $994 +$75 +8%
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jan 03 $630 +$70 +11%
Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference o Jan 03 $30 −$25 -84%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $144 +$4 +3%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $149 +$4 +3%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31? Jan 03 $145 −$116 -80%
Will Genoa CFC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jan 03 $138 +$6 +4%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $277 +$10 +4%
Rice vs. Texas State Jan 02 $266 +$11 +4%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $201 +$63 +31%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $173 +$28 +16%
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Northern Kentucky Norse Jan 02 $2,734 −$2,676 -98%
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Southern Illinois Salukis Jan 01 $158 +$15 +10%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jan 01 $2,299 +$535 +23%
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Youngstown State Penguins Jan 01 $1,561 −$992 -64%
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $2,940 +$353 +12%
Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $2,826 +$115 +4%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Jan 01 $1,699 +$81 +5%
Grok 4.20 released by December 31? Jan 01 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29? Jan 01 $104 +$1 +1%
Suns vs. Cavaliers Jan 01 $515 +$57 +11%
Timberwolves vs. Hawks Dec 31 $700 +$131 +19%
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech Dec 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Rhode Island Rams Dec 31 $1,046 +$246 +24%
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Dec 31 $38 +$2 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? Dec 31 $2,899 +$157 +5%
Tennessee vs. Illinois Dec 31 $100 +$37 +37%
Southeastern Louisiana Lions vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals Dec 30 $361 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs ex-GANK Esports (BO3) Dec 30 $187 +$1 +1%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Dec 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Academy vs megoshort (BO3) Dec 30 $1,050 +$5 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $41 0m
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Yannick Hanfmann 81¢ $815 2m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,174 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $400 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,011 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 66¢ $2 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $962 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,022 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,985 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $487 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $175 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $298 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $398 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $906 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $236 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $447 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $4,412 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,007 45h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $518 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,851.60 · official $9,851.88 (match) · 1348 history records