Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5B 0x5b0e…0b82 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,112 (-1%) realized −$1,885 · open −$227
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%71W / 52L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,343per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$6,689now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$861
7 days+$3,295
14 days−$1,240
30 days+$4,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$8,814
economics 23% +$2,188
other 21% +$2,322
politics 17% −$15,571
finance 4% +$1,970
tech 3% −$3,055
sports 1% +$1,546
crypto 0% −$171
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +23.9% +12.1% 61% 54% +5.4%
≤30d 56 +17.0% +5.8% 59% 43% -4.0%
≤90d 58 +14.4% +3.5% 57% 41% -4.8%
all 123 +1.2% -8.4% 58% 40% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 40% -8.3%
10% -17.2% 32% -17.1%
15% -25.2% 20% -25.1%
20% -32.5% 14% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,015) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$474 vs −$681 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$6,689
Realized−$1,885
Unrealized−$227
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses71 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions18
Markets (closed)123 / 141
History coverage590d
Avg bet$1,343
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,320 $1,513 +$193 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1,338 $1,087 −$250 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $872 $844 −$29 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $642 $627 −$15 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $504 $467 −$37 (-7%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $420 $430 +$10 (+3%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $361 $335 −$26 (-7%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $309 $286 −$23 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $281 −$19 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $254 $232 −$22 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $99 $111 +$12 (+12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $99 $108 +$9 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $66 −$14 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $76 $66 −$10 (-13%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$76 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$102 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $413 +$105 +25%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $97 −$95 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $568 +$288 +51%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $230 −$225 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $88 +$293 +331%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$257 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $129 +$444 +344%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $430 −$426 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$32 -44%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $509 +$741 +146%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $462 −$461 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $185 +$165 +90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $700 +$398 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $2,771 +$676 +24%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $83 +$207 +250%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $688 +$322 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $541 +$359 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,660 +$565 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $281 +$229 +81%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4,184 −$17 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $332 +$148 +45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $162 −$160 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 −$27 -83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,060 +$64 +6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $67 −$42 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $531 −$528 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 13 $930 +$20 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $442 +$26 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $90 +$243 +270%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $194 +$81 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $54 −$53 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $214 +$13 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $16,399 −$4,547 -28%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 02 $609 +$41 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $416 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $3,825 +$250 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2,503 −$109 -4%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $951 +$66 +7%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 28 $1,215 +$15 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $182 −$73 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 70¢ $72 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $189 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 8h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 8h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 8h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,688.88 · official $6,688.88 (match) · 1013 history records