Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5B 0x5b10…2b21 sports 43 markets active 3h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$25
other 5% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +5.3% -4.8% 44% 44% -4.1%
≤30d 41 +9.1% -1.2% 46% 46% -9.0%
≤90d 42 +6.6% -3.6% 45% 45% -11.7%
all 42 +6.6% -3.6% 45% 45% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 45% -11.7%
10% -12.8% 45% -20.1%
15% -21.2% 45% -27.8%
20% -29.0% 45% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$37 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage30d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Toby Samuel 48¢ 50¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $49 +$52 +104%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$11 -35%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $23 +$26 +114%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $50 +$55 +109%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $49 −$49 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $55 +$61 +109%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $96 −$95 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $50 +$53 +105%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $31 +$28 +89%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Co Jun 24 $53 −$52 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $96 −$5 -5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $46 +$56 +122%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch Jun 24 $25 +$32 +129%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $50 +$51 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $52 +$43 +83%
Set Handicap: Draper (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 24 $48 −$47 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $13 −$11 -81%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $22 −$22 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $46 +$76 +165%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $47 −$35 -74%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 +$51 +206%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $48 −$48 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $47 −$47 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $8 +$8 +103%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $4 +$4 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $43 +$95 +221%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$25 -50%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 12 $34 +$61 +180%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $45 +$39 +86%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $24 +$23 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $24 −$23 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Toby Samuel 48¢ $44 3h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $20 7h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $46 7h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $3 7h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $49 8h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $0 8h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 8h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $23 9h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $49 9h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 10h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 47¢ $50 11h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 11h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 47¢ $55 12h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $96 14h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Co BUY No 48¢ $13 15h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Co BUY No 47¢ $40 15h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $92 15h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $96 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig BUY Matej Dodig 24¢ $27 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 53¢ $31 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $49 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $1 17h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 41¢ $8 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 41¢ $7 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 41¢ $3 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 40¢ $6 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch BUY Dane Sweeny 43¢ $25 19h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 38¢ $4 19h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 45¢ $42 19h
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 49¢ $50 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.83 · official $45.83 (match) · 83 history records