Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b11…2976 weather 769 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,371 (+2%) realized +$1,029 · open +$342
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%339W / 423L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$246
14 days−$451
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% −$301
other 13% +$830
sports 5% +$818
politics 5% +$58
world 3% −$508
crypto 1% +$27
tech 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +3.8% -6.1% 58% 58% -5.9%
≤30d 127 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 39% -10.0%
≤90d 611 -8.0% -16.8% 41% 39% -9.9%
all 762 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 42% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 42% -8.7%
10% -19.2% 35% -17.5%
15% -27.0% 30% -25.4%
20% -34.2% 25% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$41 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$5,082
Realized+$1,029
Unrealized+$342
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses339 / 423
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions6
Markets (closed)762 / 769
History coverage112d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 762 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $3,000 $3,060 +$60 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1,349 $1,341 −$7 (-1%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? No 23¢ 42¢ $252 $462 +$210 (+83%)
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $69 $87 +$18 (+26%)
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? No 4¢ 60¢ $4 $67 +$63 (+1586%)
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $66 $63 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,945 −$467 -24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$175 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$70 +69%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$76 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$48 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 −$49 -48%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $506 +$301 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$168 +165%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $201 +$65 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$48 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $505 +$216 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 10 $85 +$24 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $102 +$85 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 31? Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 31? Jun 05 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? Jun 05 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 31? Jun 05 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 31? Jun 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 31? Jun 05 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31? Jun 05 $153 −$153 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 31? Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 31? Jun 05 $126 −$126 -100%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 02 $120 −$70 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 31? Jun 01 $101 +$41 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 31? Jun 01 $51 +$50 +97%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,916 +$432 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $77 +$123 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31? May 31 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 31? May 31 $102 −$91 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,352 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $324 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $500 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $300 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $1,154 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,145 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $101 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 18h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 37¢ $52 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $101 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $101 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $203 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 21h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $202 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $201 36h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $213 36h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $102 36h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 44h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $101 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,081.73 · official $5,081.73 (match) · 2546 history records