Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5B 0x5b16…a327 sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$189 (-5%) realized +$69 · open −$258
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%46W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$75
14 days−$149
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$581
other 34% −$636
politics 19% −$407
world 7% −$244
crypto 4% −$103
culture 2% +$708
tech 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +29.1% +16.8% 38% 38% -41.0%
≤30d 37 +54.5% +39.8% 35% 35% -5.9%
≤90d 53 +51.0% +36.6% 40% 40% +6.0%
all 115 +39.9% +26.5% 40% 40% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.5% 40% -23.1%
10% +14.4% 40% -30.5%
15% +3.4% 38% -37.2%
20% -6.8% 36% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$33 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$258
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses46 / 69
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions14
Markets (closed)115 / 129
History coverage602d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $309 $147 −$162 (-52%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $58 −$32 (-36%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 80¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+68%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $30 −$30 (-50%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 55¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+49%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 26¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $10 −$3 (-25%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-68%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 29 $87 −$86 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $14 +$16 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $13 +$37 +276%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $14 +$36 +250%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 21 $21 +$7 +35%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 21 $30 −$1 -5%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $18 −$12 -67%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$89 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$19 +188%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$58 +226%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$72 +3499%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$2 -16%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $17 +$23 +140%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $17 −$16 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $17 −$2 -12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $10 +$9 +90%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $20 +$24 +119%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 29 $20 +$20 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$37 +180%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $15 +$68 +442%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 May 06 $20 +$17 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs May 06 $38 +$29 +77%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 May 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $31 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $14 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 26¢ $9 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 4d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 4d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 4d
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 49¢ $29 8d
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $30 8d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $31 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 11d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 11d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 12d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 12d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 12d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 12d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 14d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.47 · official $381.09 (match) · 361 history records