Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:50:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b17…2d1a crypto 1111 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%587W / 496L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day85.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$11
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 633 +0.3% -9.3% 55% 55% -7.9%
≤30d 1083 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 54% -8.6%
≤90d 1083 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 54% -8.6%
all 1083 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 54% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 54% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 54% -17.3%
15% -26.4% 54% -25.3%
20% -33.6% 54% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses587 / 496
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1083 / 1111
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day85.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1083 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 56¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.62 · official $6.78 (match) · 1766 history records