Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b18…b5ee crypto 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2328 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,434 (+13%) realized +$2,431 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%127W / 298L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2328.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,098
weather 4% +$199
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2328 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 425 -33.6% -39.9% 30% 24% -10.1%
≤30d 425 -33.6% -39.9% 30% 24% -10.1%
≤90d 425 -33.6% -39.9% 30% 24% -10.1%
all 425 -33.6% -39.9% 30% 24% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2328.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.9% 24% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -45.7% 24% -18.7%
15% -50.9% 21% -26.5%
20% -55.7% 18% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$21 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$2,431
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses127 / 298
Open positions9
Markets (closed)425 / 248
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2328.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? No 88¢ 92¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 77°F or below on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 20? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 203 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 22? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 25? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 22? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 2? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 28? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 8? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 22? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 1? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 1? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 1? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 1? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on May 26? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on May 29? Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on May 22? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on May 8? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 1? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 29? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 11? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 22? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 8? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 25? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 1? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 1? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 22? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 2? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 22? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 7m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $73 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $18 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 23m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $38 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $3 29m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $20 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.95 · official $289.34 (match) · 3500 history records