Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b1d…8895 world 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$483 (-5%) realized −$566 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%41W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$346
7 days+$374
14 days+$129
30 days−$494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$423
politics 9% −$33
finance 5% +$1
other 2% +$1
economics 0% −$11
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +19.9% +8.5% 60% 42% -0.9%
≤30d 85 +0.5% -9.1% 46% 28% -14.9%
≤90d 94 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 27% -15.3%
all 94 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 27% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 27% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 17% -23.4%
15% -27.1% 9% -30.8%
20% -34.3% 9% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1,154
Realized−$566
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses41 / 53
Open positions28
Markets (closed)94 / 122
History coverage48d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 75¢ 76¢ $149 $152 +$3 (+2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 55¢ $99 $121 +$22 (+22%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $77 $81 +$4 (+6%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 75¢ 86¢ $53 $61 +$8 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 79¢ 88¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $44 $50 +$6 (+14%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 72¢ $41 $46 +$5 (+11%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 58¢ 99¢ $26 $44 +$18 (+71%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 86¢ 87¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 95¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 94¢ $18 $24 +$5 (+29%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 48¢ 91¢ $11 $22 +$10 (+90%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+57%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 31¢ 14¢ $21 $10 −$11 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $104 +$28 +27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $53 −$12 -23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $92 −$33 -36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $359 +$24 +7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $48 +$248 +517%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $415 +$131 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $12 +$8 +66%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $63 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $12 +$7 +62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $699 +$5 +1%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $89 +$20 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $167 −$62 -37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $47 +$43 +92%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$15 -40%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $14 +$32 +237%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $422 −$43 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $163 +$4 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $61 −$25 -41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $23 −$3 -13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $41 −$24 -58%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $52 +$3 +6%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $11 +$1 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $27 +$2 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $198 −$12 -6%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$5 -25%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $40 −$4 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $96 +$72 +75%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $28 −$3 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $9 −$6 -63%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $173 −$33 -19%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $32 +$8 +25%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $217 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $12 −$7 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $231 −$164 -71%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$6 -60%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $17 −$1 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $142 −$11 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $100 16m
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $28 16m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 27m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 27m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 43m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 51¢ $3 44m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 50¢ $4 44m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 49¢ $1 45m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 48¢ $1 46m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 48¢ $1 48m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $3 48m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $10 49m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $1 49m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $1 50m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 51¢ $1 50m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 55¢ $1 51m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $0 51m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $1 56m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 67¢ $1 56m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $4 59m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $0 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 71¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 78¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,154.24 · official $1,154.24 (match) · 1450 history records