Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5B 0x5b1d…3721 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,531 (+5%) realized +$1,531 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$8,119per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$3,115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.1% +5.9% 50% 50% -0.8%
≤30d 4 +17.1% +5.9% 50% 50% -0.8%
≤90d 4 +17.1% +5.9% 50% 50% -0.8%
all 4 +17.1% +5.9% 50% 50% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.9% 50% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -4.2% 50% -10.3%
15% -13.4% 50% -18.9%
20% -21.9% 50% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11,058 vs −$9,500 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,531
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8,119
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3,039 +$2,219 +73%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,129 −$5,000 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14,124 −$14,000 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10,184 +$19,896 +195%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,258 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $3,039 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $5,129 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $14,124 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $30,080 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $9,189 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $995 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records