Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5B 0x5b1e…4f04 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-63%) realized −$102 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -92% what you keep after slip
Net edge-92%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$93
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$56
world 19% −$13
crypto 16% −$25
other 13% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-91.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -90.6% -91.5% 0% 0% -87.2%
≤90d 6 -90.6% -91.5% 0% 0% -87.2%
all 6 -90.6% -91.5% 0% 0% -87.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -91.5% 0% -87.2%
10% -92.3% 0% -88.5%
15% -93.0% 0% -89.6%
20% -93.7% 0% -90.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -91% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$17 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage21d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$13 -44%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $29 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 33¢ $10 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 8d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $36 9d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $17 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $30 20d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 8¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.89 · official $38.89 (match) · 12 history records