Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b1f…0ff4 crypto 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-4%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%57W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$46
14 days−$77
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$103
crypto 21% −$34
sports 7% +$74
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -5.8% -14.7% 40% 31% -14.5%
≤30d 108 -6.5% -15.4% 53% 38% -15.8%
≤90d 108 -6.5% -15.4% 53% 38% -15.8%
all 108 -6.5% -15.4% 53% 38% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 38% -15.8%
10% -23.5% 31% -23.8%
15% -30.9% 27% -31.2%
20% -37.7% 16% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses57 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)108 / 118
History coverage15d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 78¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$23 +228%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$20 -57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $106 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +269%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +545%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $86 +$5 +6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $174 +$4 +2%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -54%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$49 +157%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $112 −$42 -37%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 64¢ $14 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $31 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 14h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.47 · official $65.46 (match) · 230 history records