Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b1f…3086 crypto 377 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$26,275 (+17%) realized +$26,217 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%137W / 238L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$940
7 days−$828
14 days−$49,440
30 days−$48,742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$20,652
other 3% +$4,043
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 48% -17.6%
≤30d 195 -27.9% -34.8% 33% 32% -76.8%
≤90d 271 -31.0% -37.6% 31% 30% -71.2%
all 375 -7.0% -15.8% 37% 35% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 35% +0.1%
10% -23.9% 34% -9.5%
15% -31.2% 31% -18.2%
20% -38.0% 26% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$744 vs −$325 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized+$26,217
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses137 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)375 / 377
History coverage160d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 58¢ 78¢ $150 $200 +$50 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 51¢ 58¢ $51 $58 +$7 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $156 +$176 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $92 −$89 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$36 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $157 +$167 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $397 +$153 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $393 +$196 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $670 −$276 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $193 −$187 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $151 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $156 +$178 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $154 +$76 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$240 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$63 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $153 −$148 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $154 +$98 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$47 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $155 −$78 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $85 +$64 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $155 +$113 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $58 +$48 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $154 +$102 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $51 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $154 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $92 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $156 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $324 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $157 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $397 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $589 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $393 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $394 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.90 · official $264.83 · 1370 history records