Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5B 0x5b20…99e9 sports 1467 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,016 (+1%) realized +$1,028 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%684W / 776L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$1,087est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,389
other 6% −$1,051
politics 0% +$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +7.1% -3.1% 52% 52% +0.1%
≤30d 380 -25.4% -32.5% 35% 35% -36.5%
≤90d 1356 -4.0% -13.1% 46% 46% -13.4%
all 1460 -2.1% -11.5% 47% 47% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 47% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 46% -20.0%
15% -27.7% 46% -27.7%
20% -34.8% 46% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$64 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized+$1,028
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses684 / 776
Est. fees paid−$1,087
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1460 / 1467
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 42¢ $70 $60 −$10 (-15%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Toronto Tempo 50¢ 50¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Texas Rangers 62¢ 62¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 25 $91 +$59 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $46 +$44 +97%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 24 $45 +$26 +57%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Co Jun 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $86 +$66 +76%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu Jun 24 $46 +$39 +86%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 24 $46 +$51 +111%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $46 +$31 +67%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $86 −$85 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $46 +$46 +101%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $46 +$61 +134%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $86 −$85 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $46 +$50 +109%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $91 +$85 +93%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $45 +$26 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $46 −$7 -15%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $46 −$45 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $61 +$72 +119%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 23 $46 +$41 +90%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $81 +$89 +109%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $45 +$26 +57%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 23 $46 +$37 +81%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To Jun 22 $46 +$59 +129%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $92 −$90 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $46 +$39 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $46 −$45 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $45 −$45 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $47 +$91 +191%
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $77 +$79 +103%
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $32 +$82 +256%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $74 +$96 +131%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $3 +$11 +335%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $116 +$21 +18%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $26 +$9 +35%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $46 +$43 +93%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $46 +$41 +90%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Sahith Theegala finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $46 +$32 +70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $46 −$45 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $46 +$55 +121%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $46 +$35 +76%
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $46 14m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 62¢ $46 46m
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $46 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $91 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $91 3h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Andres Santamarta 60¢ $91 14h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $45 26h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Co BUY No 45¢ $46 27h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $46 38h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 56¢ $86 38h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $86 45h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu BUY Claire Liu 53¢ $46 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Toby Samuel 59¢ $46 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue BUY Katherine Sebov 47¢ $46 2d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $86 2d
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 42¢ $46 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Sara Bejlek 47¢ $46 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi BUY Guiomar Maristany 58¢ $46 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 50¢ $46 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Maddison Inglis 53¢ $46 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 49¢ $46 2d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 51¢ $91 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 45¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Eternal Fire 45¢ $46 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 55¢ $46 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 47¢ $46 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To BUY Yes 43¢ $46 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $92 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $46 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.45 · official $373.45 (match) · 3500 history records