Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b20…65f3 crypto 1687 markets active 3d ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate81%1359W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$3
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -14.4% -22.6% 74% 52% -22.4%
≤30d 162 -3.9% -13.0% 82% 59% -12.9%
≤90d 1687 -2.2% -11.5% 81% 47% -8.9%
all 1687 -2.2% -11.5% 81% 47% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 47% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 4% -17.6%
15% -27.7% 1% -25.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1359 / 328
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1687 / 1687
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1687 Trades
no open positions (148 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records