Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b21…6cbf world 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
other 39% $0
sports 12% $0
politics 5% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 17 -2.0% -11.4% 35% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -2.0% -11.4% 35% 0% -9.7%
all 42 -0.5% -10.0% 26% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage253d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $24 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $44 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $30 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $64 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 −$2 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 -5%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 13 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $42 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will Derek Cianfrance win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 2m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $3 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $23 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $24 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 39h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $43 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $44 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $31 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $7 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $24 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $35 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $32 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records