Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:14:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b21…aba4 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$742 (-5%) realized −$740 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$1,100
world 15% +$781
sports 5% −$371
politics 5% −$35
tech 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +26.4% +14.3% 67% 67% +24.7%
≤30d 3 +26.4% +14.3% 67% 67% +24.7%
≤90d 4 +40.6% +27.2% 75% 75% +61.2%
all 44 -7.7% -16.5% 52% 27% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 27% -13.1%
10% -24.5% 18% -21.5%
15% -31.8% 11% -29.0%
20% -38.4% 11% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% too few recent
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -25% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$126 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized−$740
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage335d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 38¢ $202 $194 −$8 (-4%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 52¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 56¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $66 +$59 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 +$36 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $1,215 +$1,009 +83%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $98 +$369 +376%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 27 $100 −$34 -34%
Deel IPO before 2027? Feb 27 $60 −$30 -50%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 30 $10 −$3 -30%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 30 $10 −$2 -23%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 30 $10 −$1 -14%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Jan 14 $20 +$16 +82%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $140 −$6 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 06 $25 +$2 +10%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 05 $120 +$6 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 05 $50 +$5 +10%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 29 $60 +$4 +7%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $20 −$4 -19%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 29 $5 $0 -3%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 29 $15 −$1 -3%
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 24 $8 +$1 +11%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 24 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch? Dec 11 $50 +$2 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 09 $296 −$243 -82%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 09 $100 +$13 +13%
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale? Dec 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Nov 28 $118 +$11 +10%
Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31? Nov 28 $8 $0 +5%
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30? Nov 26 $1 $0 +33%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Nov 25 $300 −$300 -100%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $1,052 −$341 -32%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $200 +$12 +6%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $1,903 −$82 -4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $555 +$2 +0%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $1,283 −$1,007 -78%
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $241 +$78 +32%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $444 +$94 +21%
Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $185 +$11 +6%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $4,737 +$165 +4%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Sep 14 $486 −$486 -100%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 20 $49 +$15 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $11 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $81 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $16 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $91 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $97 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 3h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $15 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $36 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $15 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $41 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $25 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $15 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $839 41d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $806 41d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $578 41d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $98 111d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $66 112d
Deel IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 38¢ $30 112d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes $1 129d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $75 140d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 140d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 140d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 140d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 154d
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy SELL No 36¢ $36 155d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 155d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 155d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 155d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $41 155d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.66 · official $339.67 (match) · 634 history records