Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b27…7269 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate53%30W / 27L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$25
other 23% +$3
politics 9% −$5
finance 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 15 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 7% -6.2%
≤90d 15 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 7% -6.2%
all 57 -0.9% -10.3% 53% 2% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -7.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -16.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -24.6%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.78 per $1 lost it wins $4.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses30 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage472d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 87¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $28 +$1 +5%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $103 +$3 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $50 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $92 +$19 +21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $48 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $8 $0 +2%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 01 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 28 $8 $0 -3%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 28 $8 $0 +3%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Albania be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $12 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 16 $15 $0 -1%
X allowed to operate in China before May? Apr 10 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $62 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $28 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 16h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $6 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $6 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $3 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $45 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $4 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $44 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $21 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $23 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $45 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $16 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $41 21d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.77 · official $61.77 (match) · 181 history records