Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b2b…2327 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$39 (-3%) realized −$46 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$24
14 days−$18
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$112
other 34% −$26
sports 19% +$93
crypto 2% −$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.1% -21.4% 56% 22% -19.0%
≤30d 17 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 24% -3.1%
≤90d 57 -24.7% -31.8% 49% 32% -11.9%
all 59 -27.2% -34.2% 47% 31% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 31% -12.3%
10% -40.5% 25% -20.7%
15% -46.2% 22% -28.3%
20% -51.5% 19% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage230d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 31¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Yes 37¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? Yes 43¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? Yes 10¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Yes 36¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Portugal be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 30¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? Yes 54¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOUD 64¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? Yes 35¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? Yes 42¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Yes 55¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-05-10? Yes 34¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? Yes 35¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Pistons 36¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $138 −$13 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $8 +$3 +39%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $128 +$7 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $125 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $120 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $60 +$67 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 11 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 11 $10 +$2 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $190 −$115 -61%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $5 −$5 -99%
CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: Both Teams to Score May 11 $50 +$12 +24%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 +$4 +109%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 +$5 +89%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $120 +$9 +7%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $16 $0 +3%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $4 +$4 +101%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $110 +$16 +15%
Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-03-06? May 05 $4 −$3 -87%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $14 +$7 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND BUY 42¢ $6 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $30 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $106 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $12 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $7 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 68¢ $5 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL Karmine Corp 39¢ $4 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $3 7d
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOUD 64¢ $5 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $135 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $6.12 · 126 history records