Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b2f…d29e crypto 745 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,098 (+15%) realized +$1,106 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%442W / 299L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day97.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$74
14 days+$157
30 days+$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$324
weather 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 +3.2% -6.6% 60% 54% -5.0%
≤30d 741 +2.1% -7.7% 60% 47% -5.8%
≤90d 741 +2.1% -7.7% 60% 47% -5.8%
all 741 +2.1% -7.7% 60% 47% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 47% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 35% -14.8%
15% -24.6% 26% -23.0%
20% -32.0% 18% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$1,106
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses442 / 299
Open positions4
Markets (closed)741 / 745
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day97.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 741 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 70¢ 100¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+16%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Down 48¢ 60¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Up 66¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Down 42¢ 28¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? No 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$8 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$3 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $0 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.20 · official $52.20 (match) · 3500 history records