Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5B 0x5b32…c128 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$152 (+86%) realized +$152 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$97
other 37% +$54
crypto 18% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +27.5% +15.4% 44% 39% +80.0%
≤30d 18 +27.5% +15.4% 44% 39% +80.0%
≤90d 18 +27.5% +15.4% 44% 39% +80.0%
all 18 +27.5% +15.4% 44% 39% +80.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.4% 39% +80.0%
10% ← realistic here +4.3% 39% +62.8%
15% -5.7% 39% +47.0%
20% -15.0% 39% +32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +99% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$3 · ×6.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.06 per $1 lost it wins $5.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$15 +89%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $7 +$39 +550%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $6 +$10 +172%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$6 -54%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$95 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $3 8h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 8h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 8h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $3 8h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $3 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $3 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.67 · official $29.67 (match) · 81 history records