Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b33…d653 crypto 951 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,826 (+19%) realized +$2,827 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%468W / 521L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day133.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$245
sports 11% −$70
other 2% −$28
world 2% −$11
weather 2% −$36
politics 1% −$8
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 576 -17.5% -25.4% 33% 24% -19.8%
≤30d 989 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 40% -14.5%
≤90d 989 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 40% -14.5%
all 989 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 40% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 40% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 34% -22.7%
15% -32.3% 3% -30.2%
20% -38.9% 1% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$2,827
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses468 / 521
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions7
Markets (closed)989 / 951
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day133.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 989 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 86¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June Jun 17 $1 $0 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -13%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -26%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $2 −$1 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June SELL No 16¢ $1 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 0m
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 0m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL No 4¢ $0 1m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 10¢ $0 1m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 1m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 1m
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 55¢ $3 1m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 56¢ $3 1m
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 1m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? SELL No 69¢ $3 1m
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $3 1m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 1m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 79¢ $4 1m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $4 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $0 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2m
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Mexico be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? SELL No 3¢ $0 2m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $4 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 3m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.07 · official $10.07 (match) · 3500 history records