Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b36…8ea5 other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,321 (-1%) realized −$2,321 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate15%23W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,271per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$345
politics 38% −$90
sports 14% −$1,876
world 6% −$17
culture 3% −$8
economics 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$15
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 87 -2.1% -11.5% 5% 2% -10.6%
all 151 -4.8% -13.8% 15% 7% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 7% -10.6%
10% -22.1% 7% -19.2%
15% -29.6% 6% -27.0%
20% -36.5% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,679) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized−$2,321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses23 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,271
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $396 $396 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $385 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,497 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $3,039 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $602 +$1 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $714 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,679 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $754 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,704 −$4 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,698 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,305 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $218 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,950 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,155 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $88 +$46 +52%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 24 $50 +$35 +70%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,672 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,679 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,466 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,274 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $385 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $385 4h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $299 19h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 21h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $343 47h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $344 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $339 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $340 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $467 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $467 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $323 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $324 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $713 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $714 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $648 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $649 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $747 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $748 11d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $396 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,085 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,087 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 14d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,072 14d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,073 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $776 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.44 · official $396.44 (match) · 445 history records