Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5B 0x5b37…05d6 other 22 markets active 20h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-4%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$1
world 9% −$5
sports 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.5% -2.8% 82% 64% -3.8%
≤30d 22 +21.7% +10.1% 77% 68% -10.0%
≤90d 22 +21.7% +10.1% 77% 68% -10.0%
all 22 +21.7% +10.1% 77% 68% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 68% -10.0%
10% -0.4% 50% -18.6%
15% -10.0% 50% -26.5%
20% -18.9% 32% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 $0 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +20%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +365%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 13d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records