Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5B 0x5b40…2464 sports 160 markets active 3d ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,187 (-26%) realized −$6,187 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%71W / 89L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$5
14 days−$81
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$6,931
other 10% +$724
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -33.0% -39.4% 43% 43% -10.6%
≤30d 11 -36.3% -42.4% 45% 45% -11.7%
≤90d 42 -24.7% -31.9% 48% 33% -19.3%
all 160 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 41% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 41% -32.9%
10% -26.8% 39% -39.3%
15% -33.8% 37% -45.2%
20% -40.3% 32% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$133 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses71 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 160
History coverage426d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$111 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $42 +$7 +16%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $330 +$52 +16%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $25 +$21 +83%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks May 06 $28 +$10 +35%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 06 $51 +$77 +152%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $25 +$10 +42%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $50 +$93 +185%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $123 +$172 +140%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $46 +$76 +165%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 24 $472 −$424 -90%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $201 −$198 -98%
Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? Apr 21 $186 +$15 +8%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $334 −$333 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $318 +$16 +5%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $485 +$19 +4%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $629 +$12 +2%
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan Apr 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $936 +$38 +4%
Panthers vs. Saints Apr 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Commanders vs. Vikings Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ravens vs. Chiefs Apr 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 14 $399 −$176 -44%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 13 $500 +$167 +34%
Jazz vs. Lakers Apr 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $873 +$83 +10%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $627 +$248 +40%
Magic vs. Lakers Feb 25 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Celtics vs. Lakers Feb 23 $75 −$69 -92%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Feb 20 $25 +$49 +195%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks Feb 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 10 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $15 −$8 -52%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $996 +$331 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 31¢ $26 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 48¢ $38 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 12d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $83 16d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 17d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 86¢ $330 36d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 36d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 36d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 29¢ $15 38d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 39d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 14¢ $10 43d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 39¢ $51 47d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 48¢ $51 49d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers SELL Spurs 99¢ $143 52d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 34¢ $50 52d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $25 53d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 40¢ $25 53d
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) BUY Suns 50¢ $25 53d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 21¢ $10 54d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 420 history records