Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5B 0x5b42…dc6d sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$85 (-15%) realized −$72 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip

Net edge-56%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$81per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-51.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-46.8%	-51.8%	50%	0%	-27.3%
≤30d	2	-46.8%	-51.8%	50%	0%	-27.3%
≤90d	2	-46.8%	-51.8%	50%	0%	-27.3%
all	2	-46.8%	-51.8%	50%	0%	-27.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.8%	0%	-27.3%
10%	-56.4%	0%	-34.2%
15%	-60.7%	0%	-40.6%
20%	-64.5%	0%	-46.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -47% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$90 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.2 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$158

Realized−$72

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$81

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-3.5)	Iraq	59¢	57¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	Yes	14¢	16¢	$35	$40	+$5 (+14%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Under	26¢	20¢	$25	$20	−$5 (-21%)
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime?	Yes	21¢	3¢	$11	$1	−$10 (-88%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?	Jun 22	$90	−$90	-100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$279	+$18	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: France (-3.5)	BUY Iraq	59¢	$102	9m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	26¢	$26	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	14¢	$36	1h
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	21¢	$11	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	1¢	$8	2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	87¢	$170	2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	46¢	$118	2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	22¢	$99	3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	45¢	$90	4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	28¢	$179	4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Exact Score: Ar	BUY	7¢	$26	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.50 · official $158.45 (match) · 12 history records