Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b43…bb16 crypto 167 markets active 8d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (298 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%88W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day297.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$208
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (298 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 167 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 39% -15.7%
≤90d 167 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 39% -15.7%
all 167 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 39% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover297.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 39% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 29% -23.8%
15% -34.7% 17% -31.2%
20% -41.1% 11% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses88 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day297.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$12 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$11 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$15 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$5 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $7 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $16 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $14 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 490 history records