Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b46…1263 other 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,266 (-51%) realized −$6,901 · open −$365
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%49W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$437
7 days−$384
14 days−$351
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$6,381
politics 24% −$847
world 3% −$4
crypto 3% +$105
economics 1% −$100
sports 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -5.3% -14.3% 40% 37% -27.4%
≤30d 57 -14.9% -23.0% 37% 35% -24.3%
≤90d 107 -24.7% -31.9% 34% 32% -67.7%
all 147 -7.2% -16.0% 33% 29% -64.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 29% -64.0%
10% -24.1% 25% -67.4%
15% -31.4% 22% -70.6%
20% -38.1% 20% -73.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$81 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$1,746
Realized−$6,901
Unrealized−$365
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses49 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)147 / 161
History coverage224d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 22¢ $50 $544 +$494 (+988%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $90 $202 +$112 (+125%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $138 −$12 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $140 $113 −$27 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $98 $75 −$23 (-24%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $195 $62 −$133 (-68%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $642 $62 −$580 (-90%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $95 $48 −$48 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$22 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $100 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $244 −$40 -16%
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 17 $459 −$457 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $382 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $98 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $123 −$4 -3%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $100 −$3 -3%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $59 +$53 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$9 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $20 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $97 2h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $97 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $85 8h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 8h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 8h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 9h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $102 9h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $97 13h
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,745.67 · official $1,745.67 (match) · 2745 history records