trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 100% | 0% | -8.1% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 60% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 60% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 22 | +7.4% | -2.9% | 59% | 5% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.9% | 5% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -12.2% | 5% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -20.6% | 5% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -28.4% | 5% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 74¢ | $45 | $46 | +$2 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 27 | $55 | −$3 | -5% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 26 | $65 | +$3 | +4% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 26 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 24 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 23 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 21 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 27 | $1 | +$1 | +152% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | Apr 09 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 08 | $22 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 08 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? | Apr 07 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 04 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 03 | $23 | $0 | -0% |