Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b49…178d crypto 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,575 (+20%) realized +$3,590 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%57W / 172L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$5,206
other 23% +$769
world 9% −$1,292
economics 7% −$730
sports 6% +$232
politics 5% −$606
culture 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 40 -58.2% -62.2% 10% 8% -68.8%
all 229 -11.7% -20.1% 25% 23% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 23% -6.1%
10% -27.8% 20% -15.1%
15% -34.7% 18% -23.3%
20% -41.1% 16% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$48 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$3,590
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses57 / 172
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)229 / 233
History coverage166d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $65 −$15 (-19%)
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 2 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 14 $48 −$18 -38%
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026? Apr 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $50 +$145 +290%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $34 −$5 -14%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $50 −$5 -9%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 10 $34 −$30 -88%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 10 $42 −$31 -73%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 07 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $180 −$89 -49%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 Apr 07 $43 −$43 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $65 +$25 +39%
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? Apr 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? Apr 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $27 −$23 -84%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $37 −$28 -76%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $31 −$27 -87%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $55 −$55 -100%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $39 −$2 -6%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $26 +$43 +164%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $68 −$11 -17%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $37 −$7 -20%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 03 $102 −$91 -90%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 03 $100 −$92 -92%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-01? Apr 02 $50 −$35 -70%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $276 −$257 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $22 −$10 -46%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $269 −$206 -76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $61 −$17 -27%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-03-27? Mar 29 $263 +$14 +5%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $220 −$103 -47%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $151 −$139 -92%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Mar 28 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Panama win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Mar 27 $70 +$248 +354%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $100 +$270 +270%
Will Moldova win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will South Africa vs. Canada end i BUY 2¢ $96 3m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $82 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14? BUY No 0¢ $30 75d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament SELL Yes 3¢ $30 75d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament BUY Yes 5¢ $48 75d
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 75d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 78d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 78d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 29¢ $92 78d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? SELL Yes 60¢ $195 78d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 78d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 78d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 4¢ $30 78d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 4¢ $45 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 11? BUY No 11¢ $10 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 78d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 5¢ $34 78d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 78d
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 79d
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 79d
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $4 79d
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $4 79d
Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $4 79d
Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April 30? BUY No 1¢ $34 82d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? BUY Yes 42¢ $89 83d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? SELL Yes 41¢ $91 83d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? BUY Yes 40¢ $90 83d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $90 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.23 · official $172.97 · 675 history records