Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b4e…dc45 crypto 957 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$445 (-1%) realized −$445 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%928W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$15
14 days−$18
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$480
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 185 -0.7% -10.1% 97% 1% -9.9%
≤90d 538 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 2% -9.6%
all 957 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -10.1%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$84 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses928 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)957 / 957
History coverage187d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 957 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $54 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $65 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 07 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 06 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 06 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 06 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 06 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $59 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $58 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $36 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $36 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $36 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $36 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2401 history records