Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b55…ae4a crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%45W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$6
crypto 10% +$2
politics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses45 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage501d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $39 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? Jun 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $5,532 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 12 $51 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $42 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Apr 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 08 $39 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 02 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Mar 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? Mar 18 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $43 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 92d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 93d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 122d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $8 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $52 151d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 183d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $26 183d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $24 211d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $35 212d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 100¢ $22 242d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 274d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $39 274d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 303d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 99¢ $32 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $39 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 363d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $18 367d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.56 · official $50.56 (match) · 115 history records