Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b56…2467 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$12
other 30% $0
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 23 -4.6% -13.7% 30% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 26 -3.3% -12.5% 31% 4% -9.7%
all 29 -13.3% -21.5% 28% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 3% -10.5%
10% -29.0% 0% -19.1%
15% -35.9% 0% -26.9%
20% -42.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage520d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 66¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $7 −$1 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $83 −$11 -13%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $46 −$3 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $27 −$2 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $43 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $246 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $12 +$3 +21%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Brighton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
NHL 4 Nations: Sweden vs Canada Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $10 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $19 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $28 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $30 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $15 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $25 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $6 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $6 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $29 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $7 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.24 · official $1.35 (match) · 94 history records