trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +41.4% | +27.9% | 43% | 43% | -49.7% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 31% | 31% | -59.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 31% | 31% | -59.7% |
| all | 20 | +30.0% | +17.6% | 40% | 40% | -25.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +17.6% | 40% | -25.2% |
| 10% | +6.4% | 40% | -32.4% |
| 15% | -3.9% | 35% | -38.9% |
| 20% | -13.3% | 20% | -44.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 42¢ | 42¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $50 | $47 | −$3 (-6%) |
| Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $50 | $46 | −$4 (-8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $101 | +$44 | +44% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $101 | +$50 | +50% |
| Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $41 | −$40 | -98% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $202 | −$200 | -99% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$61 | +596% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $202 | −$200 | -99% |
| Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions | Jun 05 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | May 30 | $102 | +$231 | +226% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $366 | −$360 | -98% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | May 30 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | May 30 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $153 | −$150 | -98% |
| Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? | Nov 19 | $33 | +$207 | +620% |
| Over $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO? | Oct 23 | $90 | −$90 | -100% |
| Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO? | Oct 18 | $10 | +$3 | +28% |
| Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? | Sep 17 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? | Sep 17 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League? | Sep 17 | $100 | +$186 | +186% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $993 | +$495 | +50% |